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Ouch. On one hand, the nation's long-running campaign to organize the UN climate conference next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

The effort ran for over 36 months for the rights to put on the world's biggest climate summit and sustainable business expo, which would have brought many thousands of people to the city of Adelaide next fall.

That's not happening. Rather, the summit known as the UN climate meeting is headed to the resort city of the Turkish coastal city, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Disappointment and Mixed Messages

The result will be a significant disappointment to many people who had believed hosting the environmental gathering could help accelerate Australia's shift from being a fossil fuel economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring international focus to the existential plight facing Pacific island nations, who would have been joint hosts.

The procedure that led to failure has been an unclear situation. In recent days, there have been doubts that the prime minister and other senior figures really wanted the bid to be approved. His statements sent mixed messages at best. This led to stories in the Australian and international media saying the administration was withdrawing.

This contrasted with the message being conveyed at the Cop30 talks in the Brazilian city, where the Australian climate change minister, Chris Bowen, had just declared the country was "in it to win it".

Ambiguous backing is a recurring problem for the hosting proposal. Although the minister supported it, other high-level figures of the government have only occasionally appeared to be interested.

DFAT, usually in charge for global environmental talks, has been uninvolved and at times completely against.

Evidence suggests Albanese has considered UN climate conferences a important focus. He has missed one since taking office in 2022. We'll never know, but some will wonder if more could have been done to get the bid over the line.

An Alternative View

That's one interpretation. However, another perspective to look at it.

In the context the Cop30 talks this week in South America – and from an international perspective – the announcement on this week may, perversely, have been the best result possible.

The minister outlined on that day an novel agreement that he was developing with his Turkish counterpart, the Turkish minister. Turkey would be the Cop president, host and primary coordinator, and the Australian delegation – the climate minister – would take on the position as "president of negotiations", wrangling nearly 200 countries on the matters that the countries actually attend for – the discussions on how to together combat the climate crisis.

There would also be a increased emphasis on the Pacific, including a lead-up event on an Pacific island.

Grounds for Scepticism

There are plenty of grounds for scepticism. Turkey and Australia do not have a strong partnership. Specific aspects of the agreement had not been finalized at the moment of announcement. The entire arrangement could collapse before it gets started.

But it could also be a way to recover value from what looked like an approaching car crash for the international cooperation on climate change.

Turkey is widely seen in the international community as having been determined on causing havoc in the UN climate process. The system is supposed to work by consensus. Usually, that means if there are multiple countries in the race those with weaker backing either bow out voluntarily, or a deal is privately arranged to persuade them to exit the race.

The Turkish bid plainly had weaker endorsement than the joint Pacific proposal to host Cop31. Approximately 24 of the 28 nations responsible for selecting next year's host had supported the Australian bid.

But, uniquely, Turkey refused to yield. The term "disruption" has been used frequently in recent days, and not just by Australians.

International Dynamics

Ankara's stubbornness can be read as a manifestation of the fracturing geopolitical climate. Without US participation under Donald Trump, there has been no major power with the heft to confront the petroleum exporters that offered the Turks with some cover.

President Erdoğan is seen as close to the Russian leader. Several nations feared a summit hindered from the top if his administration led the negotiations. And the Germans did not want to have to organize an unprepared Cop31 at the UN environmental office in the German city, which is what would have occurred under UN rules if the deadlock wasn't resolved.

An Innovative Approach

A path through was necessary. The UN system is imperfect and often unsettling to watch, but global cooperation has empirically made a difference in the fight against global heating. This joint approach is a innovative solution that keeps that going when it is most crucial.

Notwithstanding reasonable concerns of the federal administration over its hypocritical support for increasing fossil fuel exports, climate activists who participate in international meetings see Bowen as a positive influence in the negotiations. He has been asked to co-chair discussion groups at each of the four conferences he has participated in.

This is significant. While some have dismissed the role of a "chief negotiator", experts from research centers and veteran observers at environmental negotiations say it is pivotal to their positive outcome.

"Each effective summit has been determined by a president directing proceedings who can understand, forge agreement and deliver an ambitious outcome. We saw that in the German capital in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and Paris in 2015. We saw the opposite in the Danish city in 2009," he says. "It's the most important role at the Cop other than making sure that people have food."

Remaining Concerns

There are plenty of unresolved issues. For example, civil society is essential at environmental summits. What, if anything, can the federal administration do to stop a crackdown on NGO participation by the Turkish leadership?

Possibly little. However, this doesn't prevent this arrangement appearing as the most promising opportunity available to have a conference that may offer something for the Pacific, the nation and the world. It's worth a try.