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Against the backdrop of the immense confusion regarding the United States attacks on Venezuela, the capture of leader Nicolás Maduro, and Donald Trump's announcement that the US will “control” the country and “reclaim the petroleum resources”, one thing is clear – these actions create a truly chilling precedent.

Past Interference and a New Threshold Crossed

The United States possesses a dark record of interference, invasion and occupation in the region, but the early hours of Saturday saw its initial significant armed assault on South American land. “The preeminence of America in this region is now beyond dispute,” the President stated.

The decision to unilaterally attack another sovereign country and capture its head of state – only a few days after he stated a desire for negotiations – possesses far-reaching consequences. We all have reason to be worried.

A Nation Left in Limbo

Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, commonly thought to have stolen the last election. They now face profound uncertainty at best. Mr Trump has indicated that Mr Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez would do as the US says, and rejected rightwing opposition leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the interim president, has so far sounded notes of defiance – and other factions of the headless administration are even more hardline.

The Superpower as Rogue State

A man who won power promising to abandon foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was not merely symbolic. He does not see the world’s superpower as a international peacekeeper; he is turning it into a lawless actor.

He holds the view that the United States' strength permits it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: observe the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He asserts that Venezuelan oil means this latest episode “will pay for itself”.

A Move Devoid of International Legitimacy

George W. Bush initiated war in Iraq on a lie. But this action without legal basis came without UN resolutions of any kind or congressional approval; key legislators received no advance notice and say they were deliberately deceived in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to obliterate them.

Put aside the message this sends to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and ask where the US itself is heading. While the raid reportedly killed 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, not a single US soldier was lost. Mr Trump’s escalating feeling of being untouchable will almost certainly fuel more reckless actions.

Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers

It is widely rejected the excuse that this is concerning narcotics. Venezuela is only a minor conduit for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the ex-leader of Honduras Juan Orlando Hernández for drugs and weapons crimes. Mr Trump himself made it clear that he is propelled by the promise of energy wealth as well as a desire to project strength, the ideology of some in his administration, and the quest for a legacy as his standing with the American public falters.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The global reaction, especially in Europe, has – with notable outliers – been shockingly muted. That’s not a result of Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was notable, but this episode underscores the UN's diminishing clout.

Mr Trump’s isolationist supporters at home could still pressure him to focus on domestic issues once more – but rising medical costs, economic unhappiness and other domestic scandals fuel his desire for external drama.

We are not yet 12 months into his time in office. The international community may come to rue the day if they fail to speak up today, considering the potential next target.