Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. They authors two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
