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Just 48 hours remaining.

England's opening match in Australia begins on Friday morning.

With the help of cricket statistics experts, we examine where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be decided.

It’s challenging to score runs, right?

Batsmen on each side of the Ashes rivalry might be wondering why they are bothering to show up.

A lot of the build-up has centred around the apparent challenge of scoring runs, especially for the opening match on a Perth pitch described as a "lush, challenging surface".

When it comes to batting in Australia, particularly against fast bowling, no nation has been harder in which to accumulate runs over the last five years.

There are two reasons for this: pitches and cricket balls.

Overall, the pitches produced in Australia have been shown to be the quickest, most bouncy and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Pace and variable bounce are the perfect recipe for difficult batting conditions.

A long-standing narrative from England's cricketing circles paints the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a pace bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, leading to increased seam movement.

Seam bowling is a much bigger weapon than swing bowling in this country.

After the new ball's introduction, pace bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about problem solving.

When the ball is on top, batsmen's contributions can be the deciding factor, and the reverse is true.

If this Ashes be bowler-dominated, a batsman could have the chance to be the difference between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australian pace attack?

For once, England have toured Australia with their fast-bowling unit largely intact, while the home side are the ones hit by injuries.

Captain Pat Cummins will miss at least the first Test with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unknown period because of a hamstring injury.

Cummins, Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first paired as a trio for the 2017-18 Ashes.

Since then, they have taken together 81% of the wickets taken by Australian fast bowlers in home Tests.

Australia have seldom needed alternatives because of the effectiveness and robustness of the 'leading trio'.

When Australia have needed a back-up, Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 dismissals in 14 Tests at an average below 17.

Aside from Boland, other bowlers of the backup squad have stepped up.

Neser, Jhye Richardson and Pattinson all average below 30 in home Tests.

The last time Australia entered a home Test without Cummins and Hazlewood, and lost, was in the year 2012.

The past two times they have played at home without the duo, they have won by a total of 694 runs, including a victory against England in Adelaide four years ago.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to go past their superstar pacemen, results have remained strong – England should take heed.

Tough at the top

Remember when England could not find an opener to partner Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef changed partners faster than Watford change coaches.

Not anymore.

Since Duckett and Zak Crawley were paired at the England opening slot at the end of 2022, no opening pair in the world has produced more runs together.

Their success as a combination has been a reason in Zak Crawley being supported through some patchy form.

The Kent man, who famously struck the first ball of the last Ashes series for a boundary, has also been recognized as having the technique for Australian conditions.

His batting average rises when the pace increases.

In comparison, Australia's top order is in a ongoing change, yet to fill the gap left by David Warner.

Following Warner's departure at the beginning of 2024, Khawaja has batted with five various openers in 15 matches.

Yet to debut Jake Weatherald looks set to become the sixth in 16 Tests on the opening day, giving Australia an left-handed opening pair.

It is not just the openers that has posed issues for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was shifted to open for the WTC final, then left out completely.

Domestic form has brought him back, most likely returning to number three.

Across seven matches in 2025, Australia's top three have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have performed worse.

Battle of Spin

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is a single department where Australia are clearly stronger – spin bowling.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, with 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spin bowlers to play the game.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a moderately successful selection punt, appearing out of touch after a broken finger, while Will Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It makes sense for the hosts to want Lyon at the front, but bowling spin has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the past 10 years.

During that period, spinners have averaged almost 44 in this country, though Lyon's statistics holds up well compared to the struggles of overseas spinners.

Another challenge for Lyon is actually bowling enough overs.

Recall the potency of pace bowling?

It limits Lyon's time with the ball.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Nathan Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five matches against the Indian team, it was half that number.

Test matches in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the new Kookaburra was brought in, meaning the spinner has less space to make an impact.

Favorable Conditions?

The English team have a depressing habit of being beaten in an away Ashes before Father Christmas has set off.

The series began in Brisbane, where they have not won since the year 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed by a day-night Test in Adelaide.

England have a single victory in seven day-night matches worldwide, while the hosts have won 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a city England have visited 14 times since 1970 and won only once, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

This time, the initial three venues on the tour are the identical, only in a different order and under different circumstances.

Perth hosts an series opener for the first time, not at the fabled Waca – site of past English struggles – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It is still a tough assignment, though one the visitors approach with no historical baggage.

Brisbane is the location for the second Test, the day-nighter.

The most recent occasion Australia played a day-night Test at the Brisbane, they were surprised by the West Indies.

Similarly, the Aussies are now not used to playing daytime Tests at the usual day-night venue Adelaide Oval.

Across two traditional Tests played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a new opportunity at starting an away Ashes well, though with risks.

Australia have won four out of five matches played at the new Perth ground, though the single loss came in the most recent match – against India the previous year.

Every Test at the new ground has been claimed by the team batting first.

England often overthink floodlit Tests, when data suggest the pink cricket ball does not perform much differently from its traditional red ball.

The issue in {day-night matches|