Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: positive announcements are released from multiple capitals. Immense energy is allocated on restraining specific proposals. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from enemy soil, a capacity provided through current data. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to engage hostile cruise missiles flew past – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: defensive missiles targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely delivered by allied countries. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly transforms into sober acceptance: perhaps the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a heavy machine gun fired at a aerial vehicle close by, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly imported technology. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: seven people killed, devastation and heating outages in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a need that regional partners are clearly incapable to fill in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from Washington generated strong feelings, discussion and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from American administration follows the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This trend will, undoubtedly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership works based on a premise understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House believes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to relinquish the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does minimal to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from thinking that the status quo will not change more in its benefit in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing civilians and areas but avoiding a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not switch to internal issues. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to kill the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
