Why Donald Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in the Middle East Yet Struggles Regarding Putin Over the Ukraine Conflict
Reports of an impending American-Russian leadership meeting have been overstated, apparently.
Just days after President Trump said he planned to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Hungarian capital - "in approximately a fortnight" - the summit has been put off without a new date.
A initial meeting by the two nations' top diplomats has been called off, as well.
"I don't want to have a wasted meeting," President Trump told the press at the executive mansion on a recent weekday. "I aim to avoid a pointless effort, so I'll see what happens."
- Donald Trump states he did not want a 'unproductive session' after plan for Putin talks postponed
- Disappointment in Ukraine's capital as Zelensky departs Washington empty-handed
The frequently changing meeting is just the latest development in the president's attempts to broker an end to hostilities in Ukraine β a subject of renewed focus for the US president after he orchestrated a truce and prisoner exchange agreement in the Palestinian territory.
While making remarks in the North African country last week to celebrate that truce deal, the president addressed his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a fresh directive.
"We have to get the Russian situation resolved," he said.
However, the conditions that aligned to make a Gaza breakthrough possible for Witkoff and his team may be challenging to replicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been ongoing for almost four years.
Reduced Influence
According to Witkoff, the crucial element to unlocking a agreement was the Israeli government's decision to strike Hamas negotiators in Qatar. It was a move that angered America's Arab allies but provided the president bargaining power to compel Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
Trump benefited from a long record of siding with Israel dating back to his initial presidency, encompassing his decision to move the US embassy to Jerusalem, to alter America's position on the lawfulness of Jewish communities in the West Bank and, in recent times, his support for Israeli defense operations against the Islamic Republic.
The US president, in fact, is better regarded among Israelis than their prime minister β a position that gave him special sway over the nation's head.
Combine the president's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the region, and he had a wealth of diplomatic muscle to force an agreement.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, by contrast, Trump has significantly reduced influence. Over the past nine months, he has swung between efforts to strong-arm Putin and then the Ukrainian leader, all with little seeming effect.
Trump has threatened to enact additional penalties on Russia's oil and gas sales and to provide Ukraine with new long-range weapons. But he has also acknowledged that such actions could disrupt the world's financial stability and further escalate the war.
At the same time, the US leader has publicly berated Zelensky, halting briefly intelligence-sharing with the country and suspending arms shipments to the country - only to then back off in the wake of worried European partners who caution a defeat of Ukraine could disrupt the entire region.
Trump loves to tout his ability to meet and negotiate agreements, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky have not appeared to move the war any nearer a peaceful end.
Putin may in fact be exploiting the US leader's wish for a deal β and faith in in-person deal-making - as a method of influencing him.
In July, Russia's leader agreed to a high-level meeting in Alaska just as it seemed probable that Trump would sign off on congressional sanctions package supported by GOP senators. That legislation was subsequently put on hold.
Last week, as news emerged that the White House was seriously contemplating shipping long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the president of Russia called Trump who then touted the potential meeting in Hungary.
The next day, Trump hosted Ukraine's leader at the executive residence, but departed empty-handed after a reportedly strained discussion.
The US leader maintained that he was not being played by Putin.
"As you are aware, I've been played all my life by skilled operators, and I emerged successfully," he remarked.
But the Ukrainian leader later made note of the timeline of developments.
"Once the matter of long-range mobility became a less accessible for Ukraine β for Ukraine β Russia quickly became less engaged in negotiations," he stated.
So, in a matter of days, Trump has bounced from entertaining the prospect of sending missiles to the Eastern European country to organizing a meeting in Hungary with Putin and confidentially pressuring the Ukrainian president to cede all of Donbas β including territory Russia has been failed to capture.
He has ultimately settled on advocating a truce along current battle lines β a proposal Russia has rejected.
On the campaign trail last year, Trump promised that he could end the conflict in Ukraine in a very short time. He has since discarded that pledge, saying that concluding the war is turning out harder than he expected.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the constraints of his authority β and the difficulty of finding a peace plan when neither side wants, or can afford to, cease hostilities.